Political Change

Photo: Shirley in Ekaterinburg at memorial for soldiers lost in Afganistan

In my brief visit to Russia this fall there has been a momentous political development. I’d like to comment on it, but first I’m going to pull up a piece I wrote on September 25, 1998, which I called “Skating on Thin Ice.”


Being in Russia has never been as disorienting for me as it is now. One essential part of me, I think, is optimism. I'm trying to focus on some point in the future where I think things will be better than they are now, but as far as I can see, things here will be worse.

Russians regard themselves as generally pessimistic, believing always in the ability of their government to screw things up. It's disconcerting to find myself more pessimistic than the people I talk to here -- should I depress them with my views about the seriousness of the current situation?

As always, I was greeted with great warmth on my return to Russia. In Moscow my transfer from one airport to another was eased by a friend-of-a-friend who met me and presented me with two boxes of chocolates (one from her, and one from my friend Ludmila). Slava met me in Ekaterinburg and gave me an armful of flowers.

The city of Ekaterinburg was beautified in my absence, as part of the celebration of its 275 anniversary this year. But although things look good, I find myself preoccupied with troubles underneath the surface. It's what I call "skating on thin ice."

Skating on Thin Ice

We didn't know we were doing it at the time. Last spring there were cracks that should have warned us we were skating on thin ice, but trouble seemed far away from us here in the Urals. Although I heard a loud crack, for most people here it was merely another item about Moscow on the nightly news. No one I knew was particularly concerned when the stock market plunged 25 percent in one day. The stock owned by the average Russian is nearly worthless paper bought with vouchers Russian citizens got when enterprises were privatized. The stocks rarely pay dividends, and there aren't brokers for most of them. Some factory workers have been surprised to find that there are people with suitcases full of cash who will loiter outside the gates to buy these things called stock. And some factory workers have been told they would lose their jobs unless they sold their stock to management. The average Russian doesn't see much benefit in owning stocks.

There was not a lot of attention paid to the other cracks that were developing. High interest rates on GKO's? What does that matter to me, today? If it's reported on television, it must be something bad (TV news always shows fires and crashes and wars and other sad things). The Russian government was losing in its desperate attempt to cover payments on loans coming due. Unfortunately the Russian people didn't understand the significance of what was happening.

I wasn't here for the panic of bank closings and ruble devaluation in August. People saw their savings evaporate, and inflation soar. Having been through something like this once before, in the early 1990's, people knew what to do: with whatever money you have, buy whatever you can. Imported goods of every description flew off the shelves.

What's the mood of people now? An informal survey of my friends has surprised me, having found them to be generally in a cheerful mood. The August crisis is over, and people have small prizes from their panic purchasing. Bountiful summer crops from the garden are ready for harvesting. The government promises that back wages will be paid by October lst. A little inflation can be expected, but it will be controlled:

Well, it's Indian summer ("peasant woman summer" in Russian). You might be tricked into believing that it's genuine summer, except that the fall colors on trees tell you that it's cold at night. More than my Russian friends, I'm shivering at the thought of the coming coldness.

Back to 2007. The big political news is that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has decided to be a candidate for the December election to the Duma. There are various interpretations of what will happen next -- he’d have to resign as president to take a seat in the Duma. His party, which will have a supermajority by that time, would elect him Speaker. Or maybe he’ll decline the seat in the Duma and expect to be appointed Prime Minister. Whatever. What will happen will be whatever Vladimir Vladimirovich wants to happen.

Vladimir Vladimirovich has always said that as President of the Russian Federation, he’s above politics, which means that he doesn’t want to be a member of a political party. Yet the leading party, called Unity, has as its platform “whatever Putin wants.” It’s not a party of the left or the right. If Putin leans left, that’s what Unity does. If Putin goes right, so does Unity. The party is so subservient to him that the membership amended their bylaws to have at the top of their ticket a person who refused to join the party.

Putin’s power can be attributed to what is generously granted to the Russian president by the new constitution, and to what he has amassed on his own. The one point I want to make right now is that the Russian people overwhelmingly yearn for a strong character who will provide stability. The Russian people have been through a lot. The country is not developing in the way that I would like to see, but I have witnessed more than experienced the recent economic and political tumult.